TPH: Make Your Case (Part 2)

The Political Hoedown!
Noting the irony in the phrase "Red America"


Jump on over the the Political Hoedown to see near-daily updates (that's right - it now pays to go there daily) as well as the last in a batch of Cases for or against the Presidential candidates:

He Ain't No Maverick: The Case Against John McCain by Jim Jubilee

Based on Merit: The Case for Barack Obama by Townser

Rebuild: The Case for John McCain by Nashville Sticks

Aside from those, there are a bunch of other posts including a look at media bias (in the form of a letter to the editor), what's become of middle-ground politics, Obama's superior position going into election day, last-minute polling numbers and the resulting head-scratching, and a heartfelt, open letter to Sen. Obama by a small businessman from Texas that is absolutely essential reading on both sides.

Remember to vote tomorrow if you haven't, and do so for the candidate you think will do the best job, not the one your party supports or your parents taught you to like. Ignore the outside noise and focus on the country and the issues facing it. Who has the best chance of meaningful change? Which candidate believes in your version of American and her dream?

Walk proudly into the voting booth and make your choice. I only hope I've helped inform it a little these last ten months.

(And yes, you will hear from me tomorrow.)

Best regards,

-Hooper

The Political Hoedown
Advancing the Conversation

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: Make Your Case (Part 1) & The Hoedown Moves!

The Political Hoedown

Some of you might have noticed the Hoedown hasn't been posted in a few days. Well, it's leaving these shores, though I'm not leaving the Den. I'm proud to present the all-new, yet-still-the-same Political Hoedown. With its own site, I can post daily without clogging up the Den's main page. There will still be TPH posts here, important ones, but the bulk won't be linked directly.

So add The Political Hoedown to your bookmarks. It's all the same exemplary political coverage, but now even moreso.

Onward! The following are the first of six posts aiming to convince you to vote one way or another. Following this round, we'll have another case for each candidate, as well as one against McCain.

Serving Democracy: The Case for Barack Obama by the Carolinian

Spelling Disaster: The Case Against Barack Obama by L.O.G.

The Limitless American Dream: The Case for John McCain by Erik M. Held


Be sure to check out all of the Political Hoedown's new site. There have been posts you may no nothing about! As usual, no registration is required to comment, and we appreciated any and all feedback.

Thanks for your continued support!

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: The Final Debate (Dun dun duuuuuun!!!)

The Political Hoedown
The Sit-Down Debate (#3)


Forced to share the a table, John McCain and Barack Obama faced off in an uncaged verbal death match last night at Hofstra University. Moderating was the elderly, but deft Bob Schieffer of CBS, probably the best moderator we've seen this political season. The questions cut to the quick on many issues, were not softballs and prompted intense back-and-forths unlike anything we've seen in the previous 2008 Presidential debates.

Not that it was really that exciting.


***

Obama still monotoned his way through most answers, sticking to the stump speech talking points, using the phrase "middle class" about as often as he could and, if the opportunity arose, getting in some quick jabs or "nuh uhs!" to block McCain's attacks. On the issues, he was able to give a broad, appealing answer for any Health Care questions without really getting into the nuts and bolts of the matter. It was probably his best response, but certainly he did not show a complete mastery of all domestic matters.

On education, a key issue for any parent or potential parent, he said nothing. Oh, he said a lot of words, but they boiled down to an ignorance of the underlying problems and a desire to increase funding at a federal level without holding states at all accountable for the money they currently spend from their own coffers, much less the federal dollars. When the talk turned to vouchers in District of Columbia public schools, he agreed with McCain that they worked, then said he wanted to move away from them because there weren't enough available.

If something works in a pilot program, you usually expand, rather than eliminate, the specifics of the program. That leap in logic, pretty small, eluded Obama and I'm sure McCain is hoping this resonates particularly with urban parents who see their schools deteriorating and want another option.

Taken overall, it was another bland performance, or as the punditry says, "reassuring." He might be black, in other words, but he's not gonna steal your Jeep's spare tire. Smooth move, media.

But this wasn't about Obama. The last two debates haven't been. He has proven that he can give reasoned answers to questions, regardless of their origin (read: stump speeches), and that he can "look" presidential. It is known he is a good speaker, able to portray his ideas in a way that most can understand, even if nuts-and-bolts workings aren't overtly discussed. He has done very well in these debates, because there wasn't a very high standard he had to reach. Provided he didn't ramble like Kerry or act peevish like Gore or wild-eyed and hostile like Hillary, he had it in the bag.

Could you sit for 90 minutes and act respectable? Exactly. Not a lot of pressure was placed on him to present specifics on all of his plans, how they differ from McCain's (they are both very close on education and energy with only a few, though key, differences), how bipartisan they are or can be. Nor was he really pressed about his past legislative experience. He had to show up, not look like a clown and, three even-if-unexciting debates later, no big shoes or red, honking nose.

***

For all he was expected to do, McCain both hit the mark and wildly missed it. His two biggest missteps were Health Care and Obama's associations. There are enough circumstantial links between ACORN, Ayers and Obama to keep the latter flummoxed and without enough time to answer everything, but McCain only scratched the surface, trying to keep things above board (as his was considered the more negative campaign going into the debate).

On Health Care, his plan looks more complicated, but below the surface turns out to be a savings for the regular consumer and a "hand up" type proposal; he did not let people know Obama's was more hand out than not, and that simple in appearance, it was a mess when you get into it (a little partisan, I apologize, but I'm very concerned about health care costs long-term). Another prime opportunity to back Obama against the wall and he didn't take it.

True, the format - only 90 minutes with supposedly only 10 minutes per topic - limits the sort of true back-and-forth we need on these issues. For a candidate coming from behind, they either need a stellar quip that rocks their opponent back on their heels, or a mini-speech that effectively outlines a proposal while showing its merits versus the other guy's. McCain constantly needed more time to make his case now that he's realized there are three weeks left, his campaign staff led him astray for months and if he wants to even lose with dignity, he needs to make up at least four points in the polls and about fifty electoral college votes.

Sounds pessimistic, but as I mentioned when talking about Obama, McCain scored big on education. In the past, he's talked about the Department of Education in less-than-fond terms, even supporting its elimination. Right now, states provide the bulk of education funding for their states, though the Federal Government also chips in. A lot of money is thrown at education, but it's inexpertly applied. We're lagging in worldwide education standing because we can't add up the numbers we're spending on it, to paraphrase a joke my wife told me. McCain made it clear that he would aggressively attack education funding to cut the wheat from the chaff, make schools accountable, increase charter schools (which work) and vouchers (which also work, but aren't out of test districts yet). It's classic conservative policy - lean, efficient funding that gets the job done right, instead of a bloated budget (to be increased more under Obama) so big it's bound to hit the right beat every now and again.

And that leads in to McCain's key - and potentially game-changing - victory for the night. Spending & the Government. He emphasized time and again that he was for reduced government spending, spending freezes coupled with a "scrubbing" of every department of government to rid them of waste and lower taxes for everyone. Saying the corporate tax should be lowered was a gamble, and an open invitation to Obama to bring up Exxon and other oil companies that would benefit (McCain never in the debates reminded Americans that more than oil companies are corporations and will benefit from such a cut, as will your pocketbook), but it got the idea out there and gave him another stump speech talking point. Obama repeatedly mentioned that we needed to invest in this or that program, code for increased government spending.

By reigniting, even at this stage, the idea of a tax-and-spend Democrat running deficits up and mortgaging our children's future, McCain can avoid character assassination as the driving strategy. Here, domestically, is where they differ. Can McCain drive that stake into the Obama's campaign and make it stick? That's the big question.

***

The line that sticks in everyone's mind? John McCain said, "I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago." It effectively stopped the "Bush III" or Bush/McCain bit Obama's been throwing around, and opened the door for McCain to attack Obama on never opposing his party (to which Barack failed utterly to present a time he did think for himself. The tort reform bill? 40% of Senate Democrats supported it. Hardly breaking with your party).

Does the winning sound bite mean he won? For that accurate hit that line landed, it did not make up for Obama's measured, cool, almost detached approach to answering questions. McCain was hopped up on crack for most of last night, full of energy, overflowing with talking points, righteous indignation and hope for victory. It, unfortunately, did not come through that way in the split screen, the big judge of debater's success, i.e. reaction shots.

So I can't say that McCain won based on his performance. Reading the transcript, I can't honestly say Obama won, since he repeated himself for the third time in a row. No change, no deviation, no off-the-cuff explanations of programs. Even McCain's answers seem run through with too much excitement, throwing him off track at times. He dominated for a third, went off the rails and missed opportunities, but then came back to finish strong. I think it was his best showing. Obama's best was last week, and here he appeared peevish, annoyed that he had to sit next to this old coot, and uninterested in really diving into the discussion. But he also appeared more focused for the balance of the night, and that might have won him the election right there.

***

Obama and McCain have been campaigning since early 2007 at this point. We know where they stand and the depth of their stances. By now, if you don't know a particular policy - unrelated to the bailout or economic correction/crisis/collapse - that's not the candidate's fault. Through writing, speeches, debates and surrogate interviews they have articulated exactly what they think about taxes, health care, Iraq, Iran, education, abortion, etc.

Last night's debate reminded us that for the first half of 2007 and 2008, John McCain led in national head-to-head polls. He's passionate, driven, focused on reform in government and changing course from what was promised in the Bush Administration to what we ended up with. Yesterday we also understood, yet again, why Barack Obama is a Democratic golden child, a leader and mouthpiece for his party, the true victor of the primaries and the driving force behind every political discussion in the latter half of the year.

Who is John McCain? Who is Barack Obama? What do they stand for and do I know more last night than I did yesterday morning?

I hope the debate came close to answering those questions. It was important, somewhat boring at times yet crackling with electricity at others.

***

We vote two weeks from next Tuesday. Not much time to make up your minds. We will be presenting cases for and against each candidates to help you if you're on the fence or give you talking points if you're not.

If you want to participate, send me an e-mail at denofmystery@gmail.com or, if you're on the distribution list, reply and let me know what you think.

A bit of humor: when interacting with the crowd at the end, McCain sort of waved his hands at one guy and did a little Gene Simmons' impression, over and done in a second. Well, someone had their camera ready:



God bless him, but that is not a flattering picture.

But Obama has looked...goofy, to say the least, including in this shot, at the first really featuring Joe Biden:



I don't know what to say that wouldn't be offensive. I...guess that means I'm going to hell.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

Meet the Press: January 22, 2006

Tim Russert interviewed Barack Obama in January 2006, covering a variety of subjects including 2008 campaign possibilities.

***

MR. RUSSERT: But there seems to be an evolution in your thinking. This is what you told the Chicago Tribune last month: “Have you ruled out running for another office before your term is up?” Obama answer: “It’s not something I anticipate doing.” But when we talked back in November of ‘04 after your election I said, “There’s been enormous speculation about your political future. Will you serve your six-year term as United States senator from Illinois?” Obama: “Absolutely.”

SEN. OBAMA: I will serve out my full six-year term. You know, Tim, if you get asked enough, sooner or later you get weary and you start looking for new ways of saying things. But my thinking has not changed.

MR. RUSSERT: So you will not run for president or vice president in 2008?

SEN. OBAMA: I will not.

MR. RUSSERT: Senator, thank you very much for your candor and for joining us and sharing your views.

***

Read the full interview here.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: Can I respond? Pleeeaase?!? (Debate #2)

The Political Hoedown
The Town Hall Presidential Debate

Wouldn't it have been neat if they could've actually done the town hall debate in a town hall instead of another cheaply built, blue felt stage? I think so.

I also think it's very hard to watch these two debate. McCain obviously dislikes Obama, finds him repellent on a number of issues and morally questionable. Obama, on the other hand, thinks McCain = Bush and that Bush = Misguided and Evil so....

Tom Brokaw moderated at Belmont University in Nashville, TN. Could've been worse, but it wasn't terrific, let me tell you.

Deep breath, people. Here we go. I promise to be quick.


***

The night started very well for John McCain, since Barack Obama didn't even thank him for being there, a standard courtesy. In their first economic go around, McCain had decidedly more "original" content in his answer than Obama's bland stump speech cannibalization. In fact, we were introduced to what could have been (and sort of was) a too-repeated Obama phrase, like McCain with maverick: middle class.

That's right, Obama let you know, America, then he believes there is such a thing as the "middle class." Class. McCain referred to this strata of citizens as "middle income," a key distinction. Republicans start culture wars, but Democrats thrive on class warfare. This set the tone for much of the economic and domestic back-and-forth. While McCain hammered down his various tax and health care policies (on the latter, not as effectively as he might've), Obama insisted it was all to benefit the upper class in the country, not you, the...middle class.

It doesn't matter than 2/3 of corporate tax cuts benefit the workers directly in bonus, incentive and wage increases, or that the last President to raise taxes on anyone during a recession-leading-to-depression was Herbert Hoover. But it's hard to say that (and McCain tried with the latter) without sounding angry and crotchety, and McCain already has enough issues with that. Obama had to rest on his laurels last night, his staid, tried and true method of cheerleading his tax policy, and that's tying the cuts under the Bush Administration to McCain (though he voted against them).

***

Let's be quick about Tom Brokaw. He wasn't a bad moderator, and would've been decent for a standard debate, but he put too many of his own questions in the mix. What he was good at was slapping Obama down each time he ran over his limit or tried to get the last word in after good McCain jabs. It was inappropriate for Obama to, acting like a brat, interrupt Brokaw or McCain (Can I respond? Can I? I need to!) just because he felt he'd gotten the bad end of a question.

!!Commentary!! The media won't pick up on it or criticize him for this, because it'd show he isn't cool under pressure, can't practice proper decorum and just doesn't look presidential at all times. !!Commentary!!

***

*Bush + McCain = Answer for Obama
*Obama's Inexperience + My Record = McCain's Responses
*Fannie Mae + Obama = McCain Attack Strategy
*Deregulation + McCain = Obama's Sharp Retorts

There are many formulas like those, used broadly over the last and this debate. Obama really went after every economic turn by McCain as an attack on the middle class by dint of being pro-business and pro-across-the-board tax cuts. On foreign policy, McCain is hammering the line that Obama doesn't have the wherewithal to be commander-in-chief, the experience, the judgement. Their attacks against the other weren't as pointed as their VPs made in their debate, as the mood of the country has turned from that thinking and what's less hostility and more solutions.

The one spot where McCain came out clearly ahead and didn't lose even after Obama spoke was on energy and climate change. He made the case that he stood against Bush, that he toured the world seeing the effects of global warming and that he had a solution - which he spelled out - for what to do. Obama agreed with McCain and restated McCain's solution in his own words, to sound different, added a few canned points as an afterthought. In a time-tested method, Obama used bigger numbers (5 million new jobs with green tech, he said, vs. McCain's hundreds of thousands) to try and seem like his version of the same was shinier, better. But it was the same answer.

To be perfectly fair, the biggest score for Obama came when he brought up the "Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran" jingle McCain sang with a group of vet buddies (to the tune of the Beach Boys' Barbara Ann) and talked about McCain's "annihilate North Korea" comment (I can't find a direct quote). It started with a compliment to McCain, to which McCain laughed and said "Thank you," but turned on a dime into a direct attack. Obama knew he had the Arizonan by the short ones, McCain knew it and probably anyone who reads an editorial by a center/center-left writer knows it, too. The purpose is clear: McCain is hardly even-tempered or a cool hand at the tiller, but a reckless man. Will it work, or do people want a little saltiness in their commander-in-chief and President?

To ramble on about each topic would take up too much of your time. Find the transcript if you want fuller quotes. I will talk briefly about health care and what was left unsaid.

***

Health care is a huge issue, one that will be at the centerpiece of the next debate. McCain can turn opinion toward him if he drives home a broad, solid domestic agenda that touches on health care, entitlement spending and education, coupled with an economic life preserver. But last night, that first issue wasn't really handled all that well - by either.

Obama spoke about his plan, which includes you keeping your policy if you like it, going after insurance giants to lower premiums and offering a buy-in to the federal insurance package government employees get for the uninsured, though he didn't mention any of his penalties or mandates, which do exist, and how this would increase the government's participation in the process.

At his turn, McCain glossed over any tax on employers' health care plans, a key attack-point by Obama, but did stress the $5,000 deductible credit offered towards insurance, allowing people to supplement, compliment or replace their current coverage. He also talked about state insurance regulation and how he'd do away with it so insurance companies will be forced to compete across state lines, something controversial, but theoretically promising.

So what's the net gain here? Both have policies that read very well for the average income American, but each has hidden clauses, and we're left until next week (or a search on Wikipedia) to find out what they are. I wasn't satisfied with Obama's answer, because he denied what he was offering was really a massive expansion of government spending and insurance interaction, and when has increased government in our personal lives every been that good? God love him, but McCain didn't defend the tax portion of his plan, which is a new revenue stream, and why it netted out ahead for the consumer (if it did).

So that was a failing that needs to be addressed next week.

***

Where do they turn now?

According to Gallup, McCain is down 11 points (52 vs 41). Look at Rasmussen, and the situation is a little better (51 v 45) and Zogby is even rosier (47 v 45), but RCP's average has Obama up well over five points.

"Despair" is the word I use when talking to McCain supporters. Obama has a dozen days of positive polling numbers and a terrific spread for most of that. Coming back, it's climbing uphill while greased up, drunk and chained to a few ranting partisans.

McCain didn't mention William Ayres, unrepentant radical/domestic terrorist, radical Rev. Jeremiah Wright or Tony Rezko, the unholy trinity in Obama's past. If he is sincere about winning, he has to swallow his ethical objections and start telling America that not only is Obama inexperienced, he has past associations (not including the Fannie Mae tie) that should preclude him from the Oval Office, dangerous associations with people whose views are not only out-of-step with "middle America," but even most liberals.

Sarah Palin has been going after the Obama-Ayers connection, and the media is slowly picking up on it. Watch this topic.

Comfortably in the lead, at least a few points outside the margin of error in polls, Obama needs to play defense and limit his negativity. Barring any "October surprise" regarding terrorism (or massive, Republican-backed economic recovery), Obama can rest easily knowing that he doesn't have anything to do him active damage beyond his control. Bringing up the Keating Five scandal won't help him, because McCain has been relatively forthwith about it. With the proper ad campaign, tailored to link Bush and McCain even more, while stressing his economic plan, the odds are stacked for him to walk away with a bigger victory than Bush in 2004.

***

Next Wednesday is the final debate, another standard podium affair. It'll cover domestic issues and the economy, so look for fireworks and hard proposals.

I'll be back before then if there's a reason.

By the by, if anyone out there wants to write "The Case for Obama," let me know. I'd like a last-week binge of opinion, including pieces pro-Obama as well as McCain.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: The Most Gracious and Engaging VP Debate

The Political Hoedown
VP Debate/Smackdown

Last Thursday night's Vice-Presidential Debate between Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin was nothing short of historic, and at the least, entertaining. Much like with the first Presidential debate, there's an argument over who one or if you could say either did. As with that debate, where the tie is given to the rookie, so must it be here. Sarah Palin did not stumble over herself, contradict basic sentence structure or blow-up; her performance, judged impartially, was very good. Point to her.

But let's examine the meat-and-potatoes of what is the only contest between these two engaging opponents before getting into the whys and wherefores of Palin's "victory."


***

Last time we met about a debate, I looked at each candidate separately. That won't be the case today. These two played off each other in a congenial, yet sparring manner that exemplified what civil debate could be. I would be remiss if separated them, especially since this is their only time together. They must be weighed side by side.

Hosted at Washington University in St. Louis, MO, by Gwen Ifill, the debate began promptly and ended on time. No surprises in format, and the blatant partisanship of the moderator, who has a book coming out called "The Breakthrough: ...and Race in the Age of Obama," wasn't an issue. She did interrupt Palin to say her time was up, forcefully, but let Biden talk over her a few minutes later when she tried the same. Granted, he was worked up and not listening to anyone, but "fair play" isn't just a phrase.

One of the first attacks levied against Palin (McCain) was the "fundamentals" line the Arizona Senator has bandied about the last few wees ("The fundamentals of our economy are strong."). The attack was rejoined by Palin and they were off, rarely letting up in intensity or personality over the next ninety minutes.

Though it sounds cynical, or demeaning, there was a palpable relief that Gov. Palin used numbers in her answers, not relying on soft economic statements by hard facts. It's a sort of criticism Bush received in years past, that Palin had fallen victim to and needed to correct. On the other side of things, Biden remained on an even keel for the most part, not rambling, as he can, into barely related armchair tangents that have stunted his ability as a campaigner the last year.

But his verbosity wasn't a handicap here, and he used his honed speaking ability to sound less like a windbag than ever, but he couldn't resist referring to himself in the third person a few times.

Palin, needed every word to count, did repeat a few. If you were playing a drinking game to the number of times she said "maverick" (6; Biden said it 9 times), you'd have had a good buzz going by the end.

Ah, but seriously.

Biden did a superior job than Obama. The ticket should be flipped, by all rights. He made a better case for linking Bush and McCain and utilizing the under-referenced Cheney (McCain and Palin are in "lock-step with Dick Cheney), even if many of the votes he criticizes McCain for, he supported. That is a big weakness with a long record, supporting the same thing as your opponents, and trying to talk around that (I/he was for it before I/he was against it). Biden isn't exactly liberal, either. He's a relatively conservative Democrat by Obama's standards, and that might be why he performed so poorly in the primaries, because he couldn't radicalize the base like Obama was able to, couldn't present a clear, defined alternative to conservative politics.

To be fair, Palin is built up as the paragon of conservativeness, but she's hardly Jerry Falwell. Interesting that she admitted, slightly grudgingly, that she supports equal civil, contractual rights for gay couples, same as Biden and Obama. More interesting, how vigorous Biden's denunciation of gay marriage was, and how he went out of his way to remind "middle America" that marriage, as defined in popular and historic opinion, is between a man and a woman. I'd be surprised if the SanFran Dem set was happy with such a response. To Palin again, her "conservative" credentials are clear, but she's hardly the arch-conservative the media has painted her to be. I think the same-sex answer, and her reluctance to admit that she sympathizes more than Redneck Joe Six-pack with the plight of gays and lesbians, underscores progressive thinking. Not entirely, no no no, but to a degree.

And speaking of Joe Six-pack, she sure did her level-best to link herself to middle America, rightly so. She is relatable, with a story that mirrors many families', and her "Aw shucks" demeanor, so much a detriment in urban and East Coast districts, rings a little true out beyond the city limits. Is that who we want as Number 2 in the White House? Debatable, but she isn't fighting alone to be seen as the middle-class candidate.

Biden schmalzed around too, lots of small town Pennsylvania lines, lots of Scranton and calling his sons "champ." He claimed he hangs around Home Depot a lot (you're kidding, right?) and often talks issues at the "local gas station." His community in Delaware, he claims, is also small-town, middle class America and we should know he still lives among the grunts and peons and laborers, etc...though it's safe to say his secluded home at the end of a long-drive, replete with pool, few neighbors and miles of road before he approaches the sprawl of Wilmington isn't exactly "roughing it."

In a shock to me, Biden's weaknesses were in appearing older than McCain and not offering a defense of his anti-Obama statements (and ideas) from the primaries ("He's not ready to be commander-in-chief."). I don't want to spend a lot of time on appearance, but he didn't always look good. There were throbbing veings at his temples when Palin really riled him up, his eyes took on that small, glassy stare of the elderly and his voice! This isn't a weak-voiced man, but too often it faded to a husky fraction of what it could be. Remember, he is the guy who had brain aneurysms in the early 90s - a far more difficult thing to actively survive than skin cancer.

More damning than any health perception could be was his refusal to address his barbs against Obama spoken during late 2007 and early 2008, essentially saying he was wildly inexperienced and not ready to lead, domestically or militarily. It almost seems like Biden has sacrificed many of his positions to accommodate himself to Obama's worldview, a point Palin bitingly made (and again, went unanswered). Further aggravating the ticket, Biden pointed out the sort of role he'd play as VP.

In pretty bald terms, Biden's opinion of his role as Obama's VP was as point-man for legislation, in on all decisions and a partner in executive matters. He uses kinder, gentler wording, but it's the same post as Cheney holds now: the voice behind the throne, the puppet master. The one who has the knowledge to make the decisions and the experience and contacts to get the policies pushed through. It was a stunning attack on Obama, that his running mate so vocally stated he wasn't able to make decisions, to promote policy or effectively govern without him. How this hasn't gotten more play is beyond me, as it is a repudiation of Obama and Biden and the Democratic Party's stance against Cheney and his abuse of power.

VP as an advisory position is also great, and it's that role that Biden will take - possibly more so than any other VP since, well...Cheney. Admit he has more experience than Barack and is needed to help with complicated issues.

It was his bold wording, not his intent, that I thought alarming for Obama's credibility as a leader. Because in the end, the President has to stand alone when he goes to the country and says, "We need to do this, and it might sting a little."

Don't think I'll spare the rod when it comes to Palin (minds out of gutters). She has no capacity to dovetail thoughts. When moving from one topic to another, she shifted without a clutch and it showed in awkward wording and delivery. No more was this more apparent than when trying to defend the "finger-pointing backwards" of Biden, when the Senator repeatedly tried to tie McCain to every Bush/bad decision in the last eight years.

A suggestion I'd have for her: go to a few catch-all news websites to read stories of the day so you can merge breaking stories with canned and studied responses. You can read editorials written by your supporters that offer those segues you need between telling Biden he's wrong to look back and confirming that McCain has broken with Bush on key points and will break further with over the next four years. Her vulnerability is in her very small town-ness that defines her to so many, a narrow worldview that hinders broad discussion of the spectrum of issues.

Energy was her bailiwick Thursday, foreign policy more Biden's. But both have a clear and firm grasp on their strong suits. An argument could be made that Obama is a domestic policy generalist and a foreign policy absentee voter - he has lots of plans for the former without much more than rhetoric on the latter. Biden focuses foreign policy to real terms, nailing responses sure to please a lot of average households. Palin, understanding McCain's aversion to energy and "down home" politics in favor of foreign and military policy, unleashed a salvo of pro-energy answers that, while not always related to the question, boldly underlined her credentials where gas, heating oil and dollars headed abroad are concerned.

She slammed the media, looked a little annoyed and spoke wearily at times (We've been here before, Joe...) but never lost that spark.

Joe Biden channeled Ed Asner a few times, coming off temperamental at times, especially when he laid into the "maverick" status McCain touts.

One final bit on Biden, and this is more commentary: in talking about opinions he's changed his mind about, he addressed judicial appointees. His answer might be the most dangerous thing said this election. He advocated political ideology as a determinant of a judge's worth on the bench, not their interpretation of the Constitution, not their scholarly past or prior cases. This is, in essence, a clear desire on Biden's (and Obama's) part to stack the Supreme Court with justices who will legislate from the bench, talking away Congress' power - with no oversight - and remanding their true judicial authority to the back-burner.

From an e-mail to some friends:

It would be enlightening, someday, to read and see the prep notes both had for the debate, and to see what they were jotting away about during their opponent's turn. How much did each have prepared going in, by the way of "canned" answers? We know, in the first debate, that Obama had more than McCain, but that was in his favor, keeping a clearer message and not getting caught in the morass of his own inexperience. Certainly Palin had more pre-written, or memorized, lines about certain topics and a strategy to bring things back to her strengths - middle class, energy, reform.

By any measure this debate was a referendum on Palin, her ability to think on her feet, frame original responses - all candidates have cobbled some answers from stump speeches and none of the four this year are any different - around core principles and policy. She knows energy better than Biden, but that comes from her experience in the sector. He knows constitutional law. Yes, he has more experience than she does; by being alive some two decades more, I'd hope so. But it wasn't a negative for her, as she got him to mumble responses, fall back on stump positions and admit that the two of them see eye to eye on a lot of issues.

Their back-and-forths were far more revealing about either candidate than expected, showing progressivism on both sides, as well as a tendency towards conservatism. Biden is no bleeding-heart liberal, like Obama. Palin might not like gay "marriage" but when it comes to civil contracts, her state supports them for all couples, as does she.

I thought it was a terrific debate, perhaps showing us the real ticket this year should be the bi-partisan Biden/Palin. Similar stances, similar backgrounds, middle-class, family-oriented, not high-falluting intellectuals but still crisp on the issues and policies. It would have been the perfect Progressive ticket.

No serious gaffes, a few pronunciation errors on both parts, some padding of records and distorting of opponents - in all, a better, cleaner debate than last Friday's.

Joe Biden and Sarah Palin were, despite the hostile waters they navigated, friendly to the last, getting their whole families on stage in a big group hug. It was heartening to see, and made me wonder what a Biden/Palin ticket would be like. These two really did agree on a number of issues throughout the night and but their principles to shame when it came to cordiality.

***

The next debate is tomorrow, a town hall style Q & A that promises...what? Quick wit? Gotcha questions? That sledgehammer moment when one candidate verbally slaps the other into place?

I look for honesty in the answers, and decency when at all possible. The mud that each candidate is slogging through doesn't look pretty on them, nor do I like to be slathered with it when they pontificate and gesticulate madly about the other running a negative campaign. I hope that tomorrow brings some uplift, some positive rejoinders.

They damn well better learn a lesson from Joe and Sarah Middle-America, that you can disagree without losing your humanity.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH Op-Ed: Dining with Doubt

The following is a piece by Matthew H. Griffin about local politics in suburban Chicago. It also touches on voters' economic uncertainty and the desire to be reassured, or at least talked to like adults. Enjoy.

-The Management

For reasons still unknown to me, I found myself invited to a campaign dinner in a posh home in Hinsdale. It was a hard decision: dance class or political dinner.

I can see and feel change I like at one of those places, but I steeled myself and my resolve to hear if IL-13 opposition candidate Scott Harper (D) had anything productive to add to the dialogue about the economy. It sticks in my craw that my one and only financial instrument is worth 70% of what I paid for it.

With Senator Obama's choice to frame the crisis in bleakly populist terms like "When will Wall Street get that the crisis has already hit Main Street?", I have increasingly been dismayed by the lack of gumption our progressive politicians have demonstrated when speaking on this crisis. We're quick to solutions like a $700 billion bailout but slow on providing context for this crisis.

Upon hearing the news that I was going to a tony reception, a friend who has a son involved in the campaign business exclaimed, "My son has been to tons of those in New York, and he says that we have more erudite conversation around the dinner table." High dissatisfaction coupled with low expectations is not a very promising situation. I am reminded of the young dancers playing – well - young people in David Dorfman's Underground pumping their fists in the air chanting, "We're apathetic!"

At the party, I found that I was surrounded by deliciously informed voters. One voter knew the roll-call of Northeast Illinois' Congressional delegation on today's failed financial bailout. Another voter explained the credit crisis to me in great detail. I told this man that I expected our elected officials to be able to articulate the roots of the crisis, to which he responded that most people do not follow the crisis in as much depth as he does. I conceded this pointed and countered that it's important that elected officials have really sharp staff!

He sighed and said, "Ah well, it's the American 'S' factor."

"'S' factor?" I said.

"S for stupid," said he. "No one would understand the explanation. What did Churchill say, 'Five minutes with any voter is enough to discourage any politician!'"

Five minutes with this informed voter was very heartening to me, but would I be able to say the same after hearing Harper speak? After Harper did speak, a high school pal's father listened to me pining for specifics. He reminded me, "Politicians aren't anybody's friend."

To Mr. Harper's credit, he respectfully took his potential constituents' questions with an openness of spirit. I was reminded of a teacher who said that the Dali Lama is always smiling. We're dealing with big amounts of money here and serious issues and we are looking for the candidate who makes the well-timed joke that gets to the heart of the matter. It's the better person who does. "Will she debate you?" asked a local politician referring to Scott's incumbent opponent Judy Biggert (R).

"We'll make something of it if she does not," replied Harper with a smile.

-Matthew H. Griffin

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: Just Answer the Question

The Political Hoedown
The First Debate; Biden Off the Ticket?!

Since we last met, Gov. Sarah Palin has spoken with the media, Biden has goofed his way around the campaign, Obama has come out against his running mate and McCain whiplashed them all by suspending his campaign.

Debates, Gaffes, Stunts, Mean-Spiritedness: now we've got an American election. With the economy dominated everyone's mind, the candidates took to the stage Friday night for a foreign policy discussion. In the weeks before, the government bailout of failing financial markets was the big bit of news, but beneath it all, the nitty gritty of election politics continued.

Busy times, people!

But, to start, we need to address that debate.


***

Hosted at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, MS, the first Presidential debate was moderated by PBS’ Jim Lehrer and was intended to focus on foreign policy issues. Of course, due to extraordinary circumstance, it did not. In fact, a good third of the debate time was given over to economy-related issues and those touching the government bailout package.

The point of this recap is not to recite each candidate’s answers to the questions posed. We know, in general, their positions. Obama has a tax cut plan that benefits - from an income tax perspective - most taxpayers. McCain favors tax cuts that affect all, but still include cuts for the (controversial) wealthiest among us. He also proposes a focused "league of democracies" that cold wield significant economic and diplomatic might when facing rogue nations. Obama is more satisfied with the UN and NATO, but seeks the same goal. They each want to spend, to cut, to alter the game plan for our military in different ways.

These are policy topics. While we did watch the debate to get reacquainted with their policy, we also needed to become acquainted with them. So let’s look at them, their appearance and mannerisms, the amount of respect they showed for their opponent and Jim Lehrer, the tone and phrasing of their responses and the personal qualities that shine through in such a magnifying-glass experience that indicate their presidential mindset.

***

We will start with Sen. Barack Obama.

As has been mentioned to me this past week, he has greyed a lot since this campaign started. His youthful looks are giving way to a creased face and whitening hair. I heard a (somewhat ridiculous) rumor that there was no effort made to disguise the grey to make him appear more experienced, as age adds wisdom. Image is the least important thing, but it pays to keep it in mind.

More so than McCain, Obama has had a great deal more recent experience debating and bandying about sound bites. As a great public speaker, and someone with a legal background, he understands the framing of a response and the body language required to connect to an audience. Not that McCain doesn’t, but his focus in life has been far less on speeches.

Points to Obama for the businessman-like movements and gestures, making us thing of a boardroom meeting, or failing that a closed-room hearing.

So that nonsense aside, how did he do?

His responses were well-thought out, heavy on stump speech themes and lines, but structured in such a way to forget he’s given all these responses before as part of larger speeches. He helped this by using the point system. "There are X things we need to do. Number 1...." It provides internal and external focus, allowing you the debater the luxury of a list-like framework to work in and the audience an easy-to-follow set of ideas.

Also more lawyerly was his tendency to be curt, to have "just one more point" to make, as well as the old mainstay, the objection. During the debate, Obama was far more likely to interrupt either Lehrer or McCain to get a word in. We know McCain has a temper, but I think we saw Obama has one, too. While he would laugh off some statements McCain made, he would also directly (forcefully? Angrily?) attempt to rebut what he saw as a distortion or lie.

When it came to answering questions, when it comes time for any presidential debater to answer questions, there is a certain amount of evasion. Pin yourself down with a hard statement and it’ll stick with you if proven wrong, folly or inadequate. Changing a position after a debate is a deathknell for a campaign. Faced with the question about what proposals he would cut from his budget to make room for the Wall Street Bailout package, Obama said it was hard to know since there isn’t a budget to judge the impact on, but he would still want to emphasize health care, education, alternative fuels, etc. Basically, he gave no answer but read a few bullet points from his website. This tactic did repeat itself, answering by diversion when he didn’t want to become stuck by a hastily stated position that he might not really believe in.

On foreign experience, Obama proved he knows the names, situations, requirements and key areas of long-term importance. I don’t think anyone will say he came off as unknowledgeable about issues beyond our borders. Do you agree? That is policy again. Save it for a true commentary.

The biggest criticisms I’d level at Obama would be his Kerry-like droning at times, rambling on, and the preference for saying "Senator McCain is right..." too many times. It hurts him to agree so much with his opponent, and he did. If he agrees with so many points, is there really a change we can believe in? Conservatives will hammer home on Obama’s playing up, inadvertently, McCain’s experience and skill with affairs of state.

Also, lest I forget, after McCain talked about Obama’s lack of field experience related to his foreign relations subcommittee, Obama referred to Sen. Joe Biden and his experience, like he could leach off of it and absorb three decades+ foreign and domestic policy experience. Big gaffe, exposing your crushing lack of governmental experience.

But he did do a lot right. His responses were clear and articulate, his presentation very professional, his eye contact maybe 65% of the time with the camera and not Lehrer or McCain. He made his stutters sound like thought-gathering moments, a tough thing to do. Showing an aggressive streak will probably help prove he has a backbone and can stand up to someone other than a middle-aged woman.

***

Across the aisle, to Sen. John McCain.

He looked old, but not decrepit. I think the boost in the polls the first half of the month did much to add vigor to him physiologically and not just mentally. He wasn’t Bob Dole up there, some old fuddy duddy best suited to retirement home living on Boca Raton. There was energy in those eyes, and silver on his tongue.

Unlike Obama, he did not have the best movements, but this isn’t his fault. As he cannot raise his arms past a certain height, it becomes hard to avoid looking like your suit doesn’t’ fit. The timbre of his voice, at the beginning, was also very somber, almost like he was speaking to a group of librarians. He got fired up and more commanding in tone as the evening went on.

Did that fire result in a victory?

I cannot, even as a Republican, say he hit it out of the park. His weakness on economic issues, or his unwillingness to defend certain areas of his tax plan (corporate cuts help every corporation, oil related or not), made the first few responses a little muddied. As he got into cutting wasteful spending, he developed better and his best moment regarding the economy was when asked that question about what he’d give up to accommodate the bailout: departments of the government. Basically, he’d audit the government, find the waste, and trim it to save money. "Scrub every agency of government," was the line, more/less.

This points to a difference in debate style. Obama was able to quite easily turn a question to a platform for another, vaguely related issue. McCain stuck, on the whole, to the question asked; he evaded some, but that wasn’t a great fault of his. His problems came in the force of his tone. We know he can holler, can pound a podium and raise his voice. It just took him 30 minutes to remember.

While Obama projected businessman or lawyer, McCain was the old general called back to action. He’d seen the battlefield, knew what had to be done and was here to tell us, to deliver a moral at times, a parable or story when appropriate. It wasn’t the ramble of a Grandpa in a rocking chair, but the burden of experience coming out. You could tell the weight of decades of public service has shaped McCain into more than just another Senator.

He hammered home on his record, how he has a record, to look at the record. Obama seldom tried, and mostly failed, to say how some parts of McCain’s record were shoddy or overly partisan, but with 26 years on Capitol Hill, there are bound to be highs and lows. McCain’s best defense was to highlight Obama’s slim record: when discussing the economy, to remind people of the nearly $1 billion in earmarks he requested over his first three years in the Senate; on foreign policy, bring up Obama’s continual opposition to the surge in Iraq.

To compliment the disastrous phrase, "Senator McCain was/is right," McCain made sure to say that "Senator Obama is (still) mistaken/wrong/naïve," bringing the experience issue to light, undercutting Obama’s foundation without being overly snarky.

But McCain wasn’t perfect. As I said, his speaking voice cost him early on. He also didn’t use that temper to highlight how he was mad about mistakes made in the Administration. He should’ve practiced his gestures a little more to refine his appearance and he should not have repeated the phrase, "but most importantly" before every point. It diminishes what came before.

That said, he hammered out his views on the economy, pork barrel spending, and foreign policy. Repetition is key to votes in November, letting people know consistently where you stand. He also was able to draw on decades of foreign policy experience in the field to show he not only could point to Afghanistan on a map, but the towns he stayed in on his trips, show from a military standpoint how you needed to move personnel, recall the military and sometimes political history of a certain region and it’s bearing on today’s issues. Ready from Day 1 is a rallying cry in the McCain camp, and he went a long way to proving why.

***

So who came out ahead? Neither won, that’s for sure. Reading through the transcript, I’ve found great lines for both, and they really do read well. Were you deaf, and had to rely on a transcript, I’d say McCain comes off better, since the words and ideas are there, even if the dynamite oratory isn’t. But we judge this as an audible and viewable event, not a series of notes passed in class.

Did McCain’s longer sentences draw you into the narrative he built? Did the staccato phrasing of Obama keep your attention from short sentence to short sentence (and yes, you can ramble still with enough short sentences...)?

Before you assign victory, read the transcript, available at every news site. See the differences in opinion that are baldly apparent. Ideologically, many of you have made up your minds, or are voting a party line because it is what’s expected of you from some quarter of your life. But try to examine the issues through the focused lens of these two candidates’ measured responses. Ask yourself how you’d react and respond to the questions and crises.

A day later, the press says McCain turned in a slightly better performance, that technically he did do a better job. Again, reading the comments gives that impression, too. He avoided what historian James Chace says is a preference of politicians to value "repetition, vagueness and incantation," a great way to describe Obama’s rhetoric throughout this whole campaign. However, Obama looked better than McCain, crisper, younger. Nixon won his debate with Kennedy intellectually, but lost it in the court of visual opinion. I think similar will be said for McCain.

We have three more debates, one for the next three weeks. Plenty of opportunity to judge ideas, character and what is best for the country.

***

To quell some rumors, I’d like to talk about Joe Biden. There has been some talk that his gaffes of late, numerous and humorous, are on purpose and meant to set up an 11th hour removal from the ticket with Hillary taking his place. I do not find any credibility to this theory. The last time we saw this take place, in 1972 when Thomas Eagleton was replaced as George McGovern’s VP candidate after some embarrassing psychological details came to light, it ended in disaster for the presidential candidate. No one has convinced me this is any different.

People talk about Sarah Palin and then the return to Washington amid the bailout bill talks as Hail Mary passes on McCain’s part, but were Obama to boot Biden now and bring in Hillary, you’d see mounds of criticism bury the freshman IL senator for his poor judgment in picking a VP and pandering by choosing Hillary.

For your reference, Biden’s gaffes:

*Said Hillary would’ve been a better VP candidate than him
*Came out strongly against the Wall Street bailout package before Obama said word one and was later criticized by Obama for doing so
*Claimed Barack "ain’t taking my shotguns," highlighting further differences in policy on the ticket
*Said that FDR went on TV when the Great Depression hit to tell America what was going on: "When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on television and didn’t just talk about the ‘princes of greed,’ he said look, here’s what happened."

***

This has been a pretty long Hoedown, so I’m splitting it in two and moving the poll analysis and Bailout Bill discussion to the next post. Look for it Monday evening.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH Presents: A Special Message From Hooper & Buck

Settle down, children. Let’s dialogue for a minute.

We here at The Den of Mystery would like to take this opportunity to remind you that in a little over a month, our country holds its 2008 National General Election, including the quadrennial election of a President. With that in mind, if you are not already registered to vote in your state, please do so in the next week or so.

We encourage you to exercise your civic duty to vote in this fall's elections. Whether you go left, right, or center, it's important to participate and make your voice heard, especially in states where the narrow margins of victory could be decided by voters like you.

So get out and Rock the Vote, Vote or Die, or whatever the fancy new voting chant is these days.

Some info on voting registration requirements by state.

A handy list of registration deadlines by state.

-The Management

Read on, faithful few!

TPH Presents: Is the Straight Talk Express Going Off the Rails?

Presented without comment.



-Buck

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: 90/97

The Political Hoedown
Poll Report & Bounces; "Maverick" Tendencies; Lipstick


First off, thanks to all who have been actively participating in our "issues" discussions (in "Ovary-Slapped" and The Daily Hoe's preview post). Remember that you may know who you're calling a close-minded bigot, so...chill out.

***

On to the developing political scene!


We at the Den follow a number of polls to see how things are shaping up nationally and state-by-state. The curious nature of each sort of poll has McCain winning in by popular vote, and Obama winning in the electoral college (though other sites have it slightly reversed, with a slim 2-Electoral vote lead for McPalin). Let's take a brief look at the states, using the parenthetical's numbers

Most are firmly in one camp or the other, with a few true battleground states holding pollsters and pundits rapt. Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Florida and Virginia are the attention-getters for the time being. It could be that a particular ad campaign or debate firms up the numbers one way (Florida, for example, is a virtual certainty for McCain, but post-Dem Convention, Obama got some bounce there, leading to it's flopping between neutral and red), while other states take their place on the fence. Michigan, Pennsylvania and (surprisingly) Washington are all running numbers nearly as close as those mentioned above, with neither candidate sealing the deal as they need to.

Looking at Electoral-Vote.com, one of the best electoral vote tracking sites out there, we can see how tenuous each candidate's hold is on their votes. Granting Florida will stay with McCain (likely), it hashes out to 268 Obama, 270 for McCain - enough for victory, but only 2 ahead. That's Nevada right there, a state firm as jello in the McCain column. Of course, though barely ahead even in the most recent round of state polls, McCain has to seize and maintain the slim margins currently achieved, clinging for dear life, or accept he may lose something small like New Mexico, but still try for a Colorado or better yet, Michigan or Washington (again, it's weird that it's close there).

The likelihood of a large number of states moving from column (D) to (R) or the other way around is well within the statistical bounds, even less than two months out. But my money, and my gut, says Obama will probably eke out ahead.

That's right - despite the amazing resurgence in the polls by McPalin, Joebama will most probably win come that cloudy Tuesday in November. There's too much of that Obamamentum not for him to win.

***

But I'm willing to issue a caveat, in form of the national polls.


Here's the story.

That's the Gallup organization's daily tracking poll going back several weeks, ending on 9/11/08. We see how Obama has been on top most of the time, even the rest. Once it became Joebama, he suffered an odd flat response in the polls, erased by his convention performance. Then McPalin emerged like a cracked-out vagrant from an alley and all eyes went to Team Maverick.

The interesting data we're looking at are the last four days: 49 McPalin/44 Joebama; 48 McPalin/42 Joebama; 48 McPalin/44 Joebama.

So for three days, McPalin managed to maintain it's gap against Joebama, five crucial points putting him outside the margin of error. In the face of this, and ignoring state polls, we may say the tide has turned for John McCain and left Barack Obama to face a series of narrow, but just slightly diminishing polls. A lot to glean from just two days, but it supports a growing number of polls conducted by a variety of respected institutions saying McCain is ahead. It's a lead he's holding, and the Obama campaign is sweating bullets.

Of course, with data released today, we see the lead has shrunk a point as some support has returned to Obama. Independents have increased a point or two for Obama, firming up from the "no opinion" category, but not significantly impacting McCain's overall.

What's most impressive are the surrounding polls showing larger gaps, running even, or McCain leads. Few show Obama ahead. Of the nine averaged polls at RealClearPolitics.com (as of 9/11/08), showing McCain with an average 2.3 point lead, six have McCain ahead, two are for Obama by 1 and one is tied. McCain's biggest lead is a 10-point likely vote knockout - 54 to 44 - conducted by USA Today/Gallup. At the worst, he's at 45, his current support level. Obama's highest showing is in the CNN/OpinionResearch poll - 48 - while his lowest is 42, from a FOX News Poll (for those discounting FOX, Gallup has him at 44 for a low) That high is also from the only tied poll left in the average.

I think we can hold the chart above to be a good measure of each candidate's support: Obama ranges from 50 to 44, while McCain spreads out between 49 and 41. Odds based on that are certainly for Obama.

In the Gallup tracking poll that predated the one above, it said it's 48 McCain vs 43 Obama. So the gap was preserved (5 points), but each loses a point to "no opinions." It's those people, as I've said, who are firming up. There was a long-held opinion that the country is broken down 40-40-20/Republican-Democrat-Independent. The logic is, going into a presidential campaign, unless you are a horrible candidate, you have 40% of the vote already; you're just fighting for 10.1% of the remainder.

Now, we're into 45-45-10, as the country has polarized over the last two decades. Fewer voters are undecided. Look at the running avg. at RCP: 47.4 McPalin vs 45.1 Joebama. 7.5% undecided or with another candidate. Figure 6% factoring in third-party votes. The future of the country is in very few hands.

Joebama's campaign says "Wait until next week, and especially after the debates. Let the air clear after the RNC." Team McPalin just can't stop cheering to listen.

***

So what's in a word? "Maverick." It brings to mind a number of things: James Garner, old western TV show, Mel Gibson, 90s western movie, one who bucks the trend, McCain. Looking at FactCheck.org, I rounded up some numbers (and they got them from Congressional Quarterly).

According to Joebama, McCain is anything but a maverick, voting "with" President Bush 90% of the time (actually, voting with Republicans that much). Meaning, I'd assume, voting on those initiatives which had his support. So 10% of the time, he bucks the trend, crosses the aisle and lives up to his nickname.

Of note, he has several key pieces of legislation that were co-written with Democrats to his name. Those are major points for him.

McPalin has been quieter about Obama being a maverick or daring to use that word in relation to him. They instead stick with his lingo, agent of change (I can't help but think "Agent of C.H.A.N.G.E., some old adventure serial spy organization). Is he an agent of change, they ask. According to the same people, Congressional Quarterly, Obama voted with Bush roughly 40% of the time, but with his fellow Democrats 97% of the time. So 3% of the time, he votes against the party line.

He has no major legislation to his name.

Analysis? It depends on who you talk to.

Obama supporters would say it proves 1) Obama can be bi-partisan, voting with Bush, 2) supports his party's platform of progressive/liberal politics instead of the Republican line and 3) McCain is in lock-step with Bush and the Republican party.

McCain supporters would say it proves 1) Obama is no agent of change, voting a party line rather than principle, 2) McCain has voted on ideology and not with party identity more (and for longer, if we drill down through Bush's full two terms) and 3) there is a greater probability that he will put the (R) aside for (USA).

What I get from it is, and from looking deeper at the numbers, is that Obama hasn't been in the Senate long enough to really establish a solid voting record. What he has is very pro-Democrat, and he doesn't show a great tendency to associate with Republican legislation. McCain, on the other hand, only voted with his party 77% of the time in 2005 and 67% in 2001, proving that - if not always - he can quite easily stand on principle and ideology, and not party doctrine.

But he has two decades in the Senate. Obama hasn't finished one term yet.

***

By now you've heard about the Obama lipstick flap ("You can put lipstick on a pig...but it's still a pig." - in reference to McCain trying to gussy-up his campaign with Palin). A few words on it that I shared with an ardent Obama supporter:

I won't get into deceptive or manipulative politics. As long as all campaigns have 30-second negative ads, there will be deceptive politics. As long as candidates opt for quick, media-friendly soundbites during speeches instead of boring - but necessary - policy statements, there will be deceptive politics. But not all deception is malicious, and some is downright humorous in political races. You have to have a thick skin about you.

For example, Barack made a verbal gaffe when he used the Palin/female keyword "lipstick." We argued that she doesn't own the word, nor do women, but that's for us to agree on, not reality. In reality, lipstick is worn by women, but that's ok and not the issue. The problem Obama has is that he used a word associated (key word, again) with another major opposition candidate, who unfortunately was also a woman. I agree he is not in the wrong, just in error. He should've had the foresight to realize the "pit-bull with lipstick" quote was pretty popular and not going away and would be associated with his follow-up comment. "Lipstick" is an uncommon word in politics, though it won't be again. He made a gaffe. The McCain reaction was a deceptive ad, a quick thing that was meant to more irk you guys than win major votes. And it worked. Point McPalin. Joebama needs to step up now and ignore the remark, as it is a non-issue.

Because this campaign is about the issues, right?

It was a key word associated with Palin, and will be until after election day. Obama should've known better. He's paying the price for trying to be cute. The phrase isn't invalid, and the sentiment can certainly be expressed about McCain and his tax policies or campaign or whatever. But not in that way.

***

Remember to tell a friend. We're trying to get exponential growth here, people.

C'mon - it's cheaper than gas!


-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH Presents: If "Ecology" Were to Replace "Economy" in McCain's Speech

The following is an independent, op-ed piece by Matthew H. Griffin, long-time sounding board and conscience of Hooper's. The opinions expressed in this piece are the author's, and they do not have to be yours. But he certainly wants you to think about them.

And you should. Please read on.

-The Management

Listening to McCain's speech on Thursday night, I repeatedly heard invoked "global economy." What I really long to hear is a politician that starts talking about "global ecology."

A global ecology envisions the benefits of letting the earth lie fallow, of cultivating inefficiencies in the hope that something will germinate because it has the time and positive conditions for growth. Unemployment benefits, state-supported universal access to excellent, affordable health care and education: the global economy that I heard so much about does not allow for such inefficiencies. The global economy holds true that there can be no end to the parade of commodities that ceaselessly stream into our homes and pass out just as quickly. The motto of the global economy is, "Drill, baby, drill."

I long for a politician who can make a convincing case for conservation and for preservation in all its myriad forms. The real candidate for change will formulate the problem thus: unfettered access to profit is resulting in our poisoning! The global economy is causing immeasurable degradation to our bodies, to our planet, and to the delicate web of wildlife about which we know so little and hear, see, and experience increasingly less.

I struggle with the fact that I can't bring this point home to those to whom it matters most. My friends will not hear me equate my father's poisoning and death by cancer with the machine behind, "drill, baby, drill." They will say that's liberal crazy talk.

Who now would stop to consider if his condition has been adversely affected by the lack of migratory birds that pass through Hinsdale, Illinois, because of the toxic sprays used fifty years ago in the campaigns against insects that killed Elm trees? Who would stop to consider if he has been hurt by the increasing indiscernibility between art and marketing. For surely art--which is using up and wasting a lot of paint to quote Monet--is one of those inefficiencies that has to go!

We need inefficiencies and fallow time to let the earth produce wonders that we can only come to appreciate in future generations. Otherwise, our constant demands on the finite resources of the planet will make deficiencies our only legacy.

-Matthew H. Griffin

Read on, faithful few!

Hypocrisy, thy name is GOP.

Hooper's promised me that the Dick Morris clip in particular is taken out of context for comedy purposes. But you can't deny Rove's flat-out contradiction of his own previous stance.



YouTube link in case the above doesn't play for everyone.

UPDATE: More Daily Show goodness:



-Buck

Read on, faithful few!

TPH: Breaking Convention

The Political Hoedown
The Republican National Convention

(Make sure you check out the polls in the sidebar!)

The GOP's big to-do has come to a close in St. Paul/Minneapolis. We've had an abbreviated convention this year, focused as we were over the weekend and on Monday, the first official day of the Republican National Convention, on the threat of Hurricane Gustav. Well, the media frenzy whipped up by the hope of another national natural disaster proved premature, and the RNC moved forward, truly starting on Tuesday.

So did they make their case? Did Gov. Palin's roll-out continue as dramatically as it started? Are any other teenage Republican daughters sporting buns in their ovens?


***

As stated, the RNC did not get off to the same start the Democratic National Convention did last Monday. Where they had pacific weather and a harmonious speech by Michelle Obama, the Republicans were left essentially running a "boot fund," passing the plate to raise money for hurricane victims. And though Laura Bush and Cindy McCain did a great job as MCs of the truncated first night, it was a dud for all involved, a misfire that nearly cost them their week's publicity.

Then came night two, and two very different speakers.

I'll start with the boring approach first. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I...or D) is a friend of John McCain's and the two share a similar policy view for Iraq, the war on terror and the Middle East. On most other things, I don't think they see eye to eye, but many vote on one issue and Joe cast his lot just that way. But did you care? His speech, while filled with a number of good lines and ideas about bipartisanship that really ticked off Dems, came across flat and monotone, more of a Ben Stein parody than a keynote address.

But at least he had Fred Thompson, former Senator, warming the crowd up before him. Whew! That man can rumble. He told McCain's story better than anyone, with that perfectly cadenced, deep southern drawl, giving us a human portrait of an individual often thought of as "hero" before "man." It was a firebrand speech that got people whooping and cheering, elicited great response and had no small measure of laughter.

Night three followed the cavalcade of almost-were Presidential candidates: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani. This triumvirate was to cause McCain the most headache on the campaign trail, because they were the best liked for a long time. But each did their part to get the audience revved up for the true introduction of Sarah Palin. Romney hit Obama hard and stressed economic talking points while Huckabee did his own hatchet work and came across like the southern preacher he is.

Giuliani, however, had the best lines:

"[Obama] ran for the state legislature and he got elected. And nearly 130 times, he couldn’t make a decision...I didn’t know about this vote “present” when I was mayor of New York City....You don’t get “present.” It doesn’t work in an executive job. For president of the United States, it’s not good enough to be present."

"Because change is not a destination, just as hope is not a strategy."

"How dare they question whether Sarah Palin has enough time to spend with her children and be vice president. How dare they do that. When do they ever ask a man that question? When?"

He led right into Sarah Palin's speech and, as you know, this writer was taken with it.

She tossed a heap of red meat into the audience, got the waters churning, and really dug into Obama like few in the Republican camp have done. Her personal story is fascinating, as is Obama's, and she used it to reach out to blue-collar, average Joe Americans who might have gotten married at 19 because of a roll in the hay with your high school sweetheart, or had the life-altering happen when their child was born with a handicap, or seen a son or father or brother ship off to a foreign shore, possibly to never return.

But for all that, she was still a pit-bull with lipstick and I can't imagine Obama isn't still smarting at her jabs:

"I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a "community organizer," except that you have actual responsibilities."

"We tend to prefer candidates who don't talk about us one way in Scranton and another way in San Francisco."

"Here's a little news flash for all those reporters and commentators: I'm not going to Washington to seek their good opinion. I'm going to Washington to serve the people of this country."

"Our opponents say, again and again, that drilling will not solve all of America's energy problems — as if we all didn't know that already. But the fact that drilling won't solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all."

"And there is much to like and admire about our opponent. But listening to him speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or reform — not even in the state Senate. This is a man who can give an entire speech about the wars America is fighting and never use the word "victory" except when he's talking about his own campaign. But when the cloud of rhetoric has passed ... when the roar of the crowd fades away ... when the stadium lights go out, and those Styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot — what exactly is our opponent's plan?"

"In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change.They're the ones whose names appear on laws and landmark reforms, not just on buttons and banners, or on self-designed presidential seals."

Soundbites, some written weeks ago, quips meant as radio and TV fodder - but they're effective. Palin's speech was watched by only a million less than Obama's. Think about that. Anyone who looks at those numbers (38MM vs. 37MM) and thinks she isn't shaking up the campaign should take another look. I imagine her impact in the polls will be seen after the weekend and people have had a chance to watch her some more.

But what about McCain?

"Stand up and fight! Nothing is inevitable here." His closing remarks indicate his willingness to take this all the way. Despite the almost laid back quality of his speech, it's conversational town hall tone and lack of soaring rhetoric, he still managed the slow boil that brought deafening cheers to the Twin Cities.

We cannot argue Obama's skill with the spoken word. McCain has no chance competing with Obama for the same part in community theater. But for the Presidency, he presented a measured, even-tempered approach far different from the quick-hammer "Yes we can/No he can't" oratory that has typified Obama's many (excellently delivered) speeches. McCain's speech was literary, building a narrative about his life, the changes wrought with age and experience and the goals and ideology he has in store for America. A few lines:

"Despite our differences, much more unites us than divides us. We are fellow Americans, and that's an association that means more to me than any other."

"...the first big-spending pork-barrel earmark bill that comes across my desk, I will veto it. I will make them famous, and you will know their names. You will know their names."

"Now, my opponent promises to bring back old jobs by wishing away the global economy. We're going to help workers who've lost a job that won't come back find a new one that won't go away."

"Education is the civil rights issue of this century...but what is the value of access to a failing school?"

" I hate war. It's terrible beyond imagination. I'm running for president to keep the country I love safe and prevent other families from risking their loved ones in war as my family has. I will draw on all my experience with the world and its leaders, and all the tools at our disposal -- diplomatic, economic, military, and the power of our ideals -- to build the foundations for a stable and enduring peace."

" I'm not running for president because I think I'm blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save our country in its hour of need. My country saved me. My country saved me, and I cannot forget it. And I will fight for her for as long as I draw breath, so help me God."

Certainly, his speech wasn't aimed at liberals, but centrists at best, those not so calcified in their positions that they can't see something positive in the other side. We'll check in with the fine folks at Gallup next week to see the daily tracking data, and if McCain succeeded better, worse or as well as Obama. He didn't actively distance himself from Bush, but also didn't tie himself to the President. He criticized his policies, his administration and the government these last several election cycles. Did he do enough to (at least start to) sunder the hoops of steel created by Democrats that they hope bind him to Bush?

I predict he'll close to within two points in Gallup and even in national averages (CBS already has him dead even).

***

There was a reason for this post's title aside from being quippy. Past RNCs have been militant in their Republicanism, their conservatism, their "right wing" ideology. Granted, none of that was missing, except from McCain's speech. Yes, his ideas are those of the GOP, but there's a lot behind, between, next to and in those words. He, like Palin and Lieberman, slammed the Republicans and partisan politics enough to jump-start again the "maverick" image, and cable commentators picked up on that.

His break with party orthodoxy may not seem so severe to you reading this. You say, he has a 90% pro-Bush voting record. Well, a lot of Congressmen on both sides of the aisle have a pretty strong pro-Bush record as well; that doesn't mean they're yes-men to the guy. Not every vote is an authorization for war. And McCain has put his name on legislation that is unpopular to Republicans, teamed up with Democrats to get business accomplished. Aside from his war stories, stressing the earned image of the "maverick" is his best asset, one Obama cannot claim to have.

***

On a purely personal note, I was happy with the anti-union rhetoric. We've moved beyond the days of the union - and the need for such, one one time necessary, organizing among workers. The only folks now who could benefit are illegals, and they shouldn't be here anyway.

Whoops! There I go again...

***

Please comment with your reaction to the RNC, the speeches and all that jazz.

I might put a piece up over the weekend on the protests that interrupted McCain a few times, what it means for both parties as well as our freedom of speech. Protests in front of 45,000 fans sure do get a lot more airtime and voice than those in front of 80,000.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

TPH Presents: Ovary-Slapped

This commentary by Hooper, presented by The Political Hoedown, and does not mean you have to vote Republican or buy a shotgun. It also isn't indicative of Buck's belief system, based as it is around the availability of tar heroin and illegal fireworks.

I know I didn't respond at all to last week's Democratic Convention speeches as they happened, but I could not pass up expending a few words on the brilliant speech by Gov. Sarah Palin.


She's a conservative all right, and also a feminist. A mother, and a full-time government employee. A wife to a working husband, and the Republican VP nominee. There's a lot on Sarah Palin's plate. Tonight, she (and the other speakers before her) made the case that though she's handling a great deal right now, she's ready for more.

Perhaps it was Rudy Guiliani who had the best retort to those saying she should drop out to "be a mom," essentially 1950s' housewife thinking spewed by leftist liberals: "How dare they question whether Sarah Palin has enough time to spend with her children and be vice president. How dare they do that. When do they ever ask a man that question? When?"

It's a valid point. But enough about that. You know my opinion now, that her ovaries of steel can take and dish out more abuse than the media and the Obama campaign want you to believe. Let's look at her honeyed words.

"I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities." <-- that's when the speech rose from simple acceptance, from rote "life story" territory into something downright magical for a conservative or Republican. It hits hard right at the root of Obama's story, his time spent working for the "downtrodden." It's time and experience that shaped him, he says, but Sarah Palin would argue it brought no executive experience. It's snarky, funny and to the point. She followed it later with another effective jab, "[America]'s not just a community and it doesn't just need an organizer." While certainly community organizers will bristle at this line of attack, the average person will understand that she is deflating an overinflated resume.

"The fact that drilling, though, won't solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all."

Some have argued that Palin brings nothing to the White House but a few episodes' worth of Jerry Springer material. Here, she reminds us Alaska's key role in supplying America with domestic energy sources - and that it's got a lot more to give. For those frustrated at the pump, what sounds better: drill on our soil for a product that we can use and support today with our current infrastructure, or don't drill and instead "invest" in alternative energy sources as the way out, sources that would require an unprecedented change in our country's energy supply systems? I think they'll pick the former, because when you listen to Palin, you understand it isn't the end of the road, as Democrats doom-and-gloom. Oil is step 1. Natural gas, step 2. Ethanol, geo-thermic power, nuclear power, wind, water and solar power steps 3. and up. Innovation, creativity, ingenuity: these are the hallmarks of US industry, captured perfectly in Gov. Palin's statements.

On final quote, and then I must away to bed.

"But listening to [Obama] speak, it's easy to forget that this is a man who has authored two memoirs but not a single major law or even a reform, not even in the State Senate."

If there's one thing Palin's not afraid to do, it's attack, and that's what the Republicans need. The party needs to get out the message that Obama has essentially been campaigning for president his entire time in office, posturing, but not following through. Michelle Obama did mention some legislation she was proud her husband was attached to or behind, but none of it has been made law or made it out of committee.

It's easy to target Palin as inexperienced. Alaska is big, but has less population than most states. And a small town in Alaska is a bump in the road to the rest of us...right? That is the line we have been fed, but will not swallow. Being mayor simply gives Palin a better record than the law-less Obama; adding to that being Governor - even if just less than two years - puts more "executive" experience marks in her box than anyone else on either ticket.

If Palin, the second name on the ticket, can get the American people to doubt the competition's #1 guy (and I think she has), what chance do the Dems have? Can they do more than try to manufacture scandal? Will the killing blows be left to Palin to deliver, freeing McCain from the rigors of being his own offense and defense?

Whatever the outcome after the debate, after the election, I have no reservation in saying Palin has become this election's unlikely star. Her deft defense of her record and experience, relevant family story and cutting attack of the Democratic hopefuls must cast aside any aspersions even the harshest of pundits had.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

***TPH News Brief*** It's a girl! McCain Chooses Palin

**Updated with full bio**

Alaska governor Sarah Palin will be John McCain's running mate on the Republican ticket.

Continue for her bio and a quick reaction.



Born in Idaho, Sarah Palin moved to Alaska when she was still an infant. She was the daughter of education folk, a school secretary mom and science teacher/track coach dad, and excelled in athletics, earning the nickname "Barracuda" for her fierce play on the basketball court. She majored in journalism and minored in political science at the University of Idaho. When 20, she won the Miss Wasilla beauty pageant and came in second in the Miss Alaska competition, which (I think) marks the first time a beauty pageant contestant has sought presidential-level office in our fair country.

In 1988, she married (eloped to save money) Todd Palin, and the two just celebrated their 20th anniversary. They have five kids together, two sons and three daughters. Their eldest son ships off to Iraq this Sept. 11, and their youngest son, only four months old, has Downs Syndrome. She did find this out during a prenatal scan, but would not consider an abortion. She calls him "perfect."

Over her life, she has been a sportscaster and a commercial fisherman (her husband's business, when he's not working Alaska's North Slope as a production operator for BP). Her first step towards politics was in 1992 when she was elected to her first term in the Wasilla town council, a post she won again two years later. In 1996, she won the election to be mayor of Wasilla, and was re-elected in 1999. Another feather in her cap, she was also named President of Alaska's Conference of Mayors.

Moving from local to state-wide politics, she was appointed as the ethics commissioner of the Alaska Oil and Gas commission. She resigned in protest of unethical actions and later filed against fellow Republicans, leading to large fines, other resignations and a growing image as a reformer - even within her own party.

After an unsuccessful 2002 attempt at the post of Lt. Governor, she came back in 2006 and won her gubernatorial campaign by a healthy eight percent. She was the youngest Alaskan governor elected, and the first woman. While in office, she's done her best to reduce frivolous spending and really, done a whole lot more. To list all of her accomplishments and initiatives would take more ink than I spent on Joe Biden, and that wouldn't be fair.

Though not the oldest candidate, and certainly inexperienced on an international scale, she brings with her a keen understanding of our energy concerns and domestic economic issues. Her image is of a reformer, harkening back to the days of progressive Republican Teddy Roosevelt and more recently, McCain himself, comparisons the Republican party certainly wants to play up. She is an aisle-crosser, appointing people of all stripes to high positions and not being afraid to slap down her own party when it gets out of line.

So her major failing is lack of foreign policy experience, a key criteria McCain has stressed. It's easy, however, to answer such criticism, chiefly by pointing out the Democratic presidential nominee's lack of foreign policy experience. But we don't have to match a negative with a negative. Her lack in one area is matched by executive experience, a quick mind and strong economic and energy experience. McCain's more learned foreign policy experts are no doubt going over every international issue country by country at this stage.

But Biden still has the edge come the debate, a big experience gap that he'll play (rightly) to the hilt.

For more reading, check out her acceptance speech, her Wikipedia page and her Alaska gubernatorial homepage.

***

I'll be brief. Her nomination places an enormous burden on the Democratic party. She's a hard nut to crack, and as we'll see, her bio makes her almost unassailable in the traditional manner. Her age and governmental experience aren't really an issue, because if you start poking there, highlight Obama. Just because he assumed a national pulpit earlier than she, it doesn't mean he's more experienced and the Dems would watch their criticism.

For example: a trusted voting Democrat told me that McCain is 72 now (Happy Birthday!) and could keel over while in office, leaving this first-term Alaskan governor mother of five to assume the presidency. That's a serious consideration.

Consider the rebuttal: Obama is a first term US Senator with no executive experience. He has not been a chairman at a major corporation or a president, not a governor, mayor, or ranking military officer. And he isn't first in line should the President keel over - he's the domino that would start the collapse. The onus is on him to explain why his lack of experience is really better than hers.

The tickets are crossed: McCain's experience matches Biden's and Obama's lack thereof matches Palin's. McCain simply has to stress that while the Untested is one step from the Oval Office on his ticket, it's right there on the Dems' side.

Palin will lock in conservatives looking for a pro-lifer without question, an NRA activist, a "frontier" American who makes opportunity instead of waits for it to be doled out. She's risky come debate time, but a smart choice that zaps life into the McCain campaign. Oh, she also delivers a pretty good speech.

I expect a slight bounce in the polls.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!