Friday, March 28, 2008

A few words about Obama and the Dem Convention

Some food for thought about Obama that more/less articulates this writer's opinion on the matter. Read it here. If that takes you to something other than "A New Politics? Or a New Pandering?", look through the archives for the 3/28/08 "Social Studies" column.


I'm asked alot what I think about the idea of a Democratic compromise, either a split ticket between Hillarious and Obama or a new candidate altogether. Realistically, if Obama isn't the Democratic candidate in the fall, all hell will break loose with his base.

Blacks will feel betrayed and the youth movement ignored at the best and abandoned at the worst. The DNC will suffer a huge backlash of negative press. Everyone knows this. I think Hillary is hoping Obama, under pressure from party bosses, bows out if she wins Pennsylvania and shows progress in North Carolina and Indiana. A withdrawal on his terms is better than having the baton taken from him and forcibly passed to someone else.

Bringing in an outside candidate, say...Al Gore, might look good on paper, but how will the public react? Joe Klein over at TIME floated this idea past his well-connected DNC friends and office holders, and more than one agreed that in theory it was not only interesting but feasible. If enough Superdelegates abstain from voting in the first round at the convention (usually a formality, but this time...), in the second round, anyone's name can be thrown in. If there is a second round, disasterous and exciting as that sounds now, I highly doubt there would be a strong enough pro-Gore presence without either Hillary or Obama behind it. Klein mentioned Obama, and a Gore/Obama ticket - what many thought we might see anyway this fall, at least a year ago - and again, it's feasible. But the primaries and caucuses were about Obama and Clinton in the main, not Gore. I think it would be a mistake for the DNC to let it get that far.

The only compromise I see that could retain enough of Obama's base is a Hillary/Obama ticket with the unwritten rule being he plays as large a part as Cheney has to Bush. Prime Minister to her President, if you will. Clintonian supporters have already spoken, as discussed before, and one way of reading those results is that more of them will decamp if it's not her than will Obama supporters if he's not chosen.

But this is all speculation. The Superdelegates could break for Obama after all, and not Hillary. It may not be the neck-and-neck race going into late summer with no brokering involved.

What fun is that?


1 comment:

The Den of Mystery said...

Slow down, man! 5 posts in one week? People will start thinking we actually update this thing on some sort of regular basis...

Speaking of updates, I had a bunch of links saved to some good Buckshot material, but they're all on my work computer. That was an intelligent move.