Election 2008 Update!
So we have Clinton (39%) over Obama (36%), with Edwards (17%) and Richardson (5%) trailing, in New Hampshire. Great news for Evita Clinton, but considering Obama's speech and his lack of acquiescence, I don't think it mattered to him. They are turning their attention to South Carolina (Jan. 26 for Dems) and Michigan (Jan. 15), though the latter is not playing as important to them right now. The "make it or break it" race in S. Carolina for Edwards holds his attention, and here is a state where Obama and Clinton get to test on key demographic still considered mythical in New Hampshire: black people.
Crotchety Gravel got a token few votes, but his campaign was effectively over the moment he opened his mouth, and Bill Richardson - the most qualified of any (D) or (R) candidate, save maybe McCain - still can't get those votes to stack up. He'll truck along to Nevada where he hopes his West/Southwest roots will stand him in good stead. For my good friend Hew, I would be remiss if didn't mention the boy mayor of Cleveland, Rep. Dennis Kucinich. Running yet again, and promoting his ideas, he has yet to realize that few if any are listening. He'd do better to raise a stink in the House or find a sympathetic media outlet than leap off this electoral cliff yet again and hope his ideas give him wings.
On the Republican side, McCain solidified his McComeback with a 35% to 32% win over Romney. Huckabee (14%), Giuliani (9%) and Paul (8%) rounded out the part that matters. If McCain can convert this win to points in Michigan next Tuesday, defeating Romney in the state of his birth and his father's gubernatorial career, there'll be no stopping him. South Carolina is teetering towards Huckabee in the polls, but expect a McCain bounce to at least dead even with Romney if not a few points ahead.
Remember, this is all moot until Jan. 29, the date of the Florida primary when Rudy formally enters the field. He's running a "big state" campaign, ignoring or lightly visiting the smaller, earlier states. Count out everyone but McCain, Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani. Ron Paul has support, but it's scattered; Fred Thompson is sleepwalking through it all. Duncan Hunter...let's not waste time on his waste of time.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008