Friday, May 30, 2008

And to the evil for which he stands!



You probably know him as the villain from my all-time favorite comedy, Blazing Saddles. Sadly, he is no longer with us.

Harvey Korman, 1927-2008

Here's one of the classic Korman/Conway bits from The Carol Burnett Show.

- Buck



Read on, faithful few!

Thursday, May 15, 2008

TPH Brief: Edwardian Politics


(A Brief) Political Hoedown

All right, John Edwards has decided. After months of wrangling, he pledged his support to Barack Obama. And the world trembled!

Or so the media would have you think.

It's simple. In the early days of primary contest, a vote for Edwards was equated to one of three things:

1) A vote for change/a progressive vote, akin to Obama's "hope" mantra; a policy vote
2) A vote for John Edwards to be the President
3) A vote against Hillary Clinton, the presumptive (at the time) nominee and representative of the "old way"

The rationale behind the Obama camp's enthusiasm for Edwards' support is two-fold: he's a former VP candidate, and therefore known and (ideally) respected by the Democratic public; he's got a lot of blue-collar, "hard working" (male) whites behind him, being a southerner and, you know...white. Since Obama has had small progress to say the least among the working-class white male, Edwards can act as a missionary to shore up (build) support in that key demographic.

Because you shouldn't be fooled by Obamians who claim that their coalition will win in the fall (Youth, academia, blacks, wealthy liberals). They need Joe Schlubb from the steel mill in November just as much as McCain will. Jesse Jackson, Jr., claimed that the working white male "swing" vote could just as easily be hispanics, women, blacks or any of the other "key demographics" bandied about. The only fallacy there is that those groups have roundly chosen their candidate and aren't budging. The blue collar Joe, largely for Hillary, is still seen as up for grabs.

So will Edwards' endorsement help? Not in the least.

It's too little, too late. If he had wanted to make a difference and block Hillary, he'd have declared before Super Tuesday or stayed in, so he could act as a kingmaker of sorts (we in the punidtry are all sad he decided to bow out, hoping for a cinematic convention where Obamians and Clintonians yell at each other while the necessary delegates to win, controlled by Edwards, waited for the right moment to strike. A missed opportunity). He doesn't help Obama with white men because the majority have already voted.

Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana - they already voted, and for Hillary. How many delegates did Edwards cost Obama by waiting? I'd argue enough to secure the nomination before May 2008.

Long/short of this is don't pay attention to Edwards. He's barely a politician and his meager 22 delegates won before dropping out prove that.

-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

TPH: Why won't she leave?!


The Political Hoedown
West Virginia...mountain mama; Other Voices; Next Up


Hillary Clinton whooped it up all last night, reveling in her 41-point victory over the junior IL senator. It's trite to say these contests are do-or-die for her. Since she won Indiana by only a slim two points (when, to stay viable, it should've been at least five), the media has been loudly nailing her coffin lid down, regardless of if her body is in there.

This is one lady that's going down swinging.

Obama did not give a speech last night, continuing his brilliant mindgames from last week. First, he says it's over without saying it's over for Hillary. Then he says he's looking ahead to the fall, and his staff begins repositioning for the general election (my inside man is out recruiting in Colorado, trying to make red turn blue). Now, pouring a tube (container? round box? Gah!) of Morton's salt on fresh wounds, he ignores entirely her victory. Flat-out silence. Like I said, brilliant.

***

Lessons we can glean from West Virginia and the campaign as it stands? I can see only one.

Other voices.

If this campaign has taught me one thing, it's that people want to be heard. With Obama as the presumptive nominee at the point - and can any of us really see Hillary pulling out the upset? - you'd think the general Democratic party would be realigning towards him and the battle this fall. But they're not.

Instead, around 240k West Virginians cast either protest votes or voiced their opinions of Obama. They did not quietly accept defeat of their candidate. Pundits have been on about how no Democrat since the cavemen have won the Presidency without West Virginia (there are a few states you have to win, it seems like, or else all hope is lost). Doesn't matter. Obama is building a new coalition, he says, that will rewrite party boundaries and change the political map entrenched for several generations.

Still, what does that have to do with "other voices"?

"I am in this race," Hillary said last night, in a speech to her supporters, "because I believe I am the strongest candidate...the choice falls to all of you."

Many of you know me personally, and understand I have ranted about Hillary until no one would listen, like I was reading straight from an Ann Coulter book. But she's doing something here, and I can't object. Despite her staying in the election until we all turn blue, despite her bald political ambition and social climbing, despite despite despite,-- she is letting people speak.

Her staying in this election reminds us that every state, county, ward, precinct, voter should have their say, if they so choose. Is she staying in for the wrong reasons? Yes, to a degree, but she also espouses this belief that the other voices need to be heard, not just the first 2,025 delegates' worth. From wintry beginning to exhausting end, she'll stay here until the last ballot is filled out.

And that's our democratic process, to the dismay of the DNC. The race might look closer - and therefore, more justified for Hillary - if the proportional system was based on the states' raw vote breakdown, instead of some random weighted system that differs per state and also includes the wilds of caucuses. Unfortunately, bureaucracy intrudes. Hillary doesn't deserve the nomination, per se, but at the same time these screams for her to drop out are also largely unfounded. Nominations are not an easy business. In my lifetime, it's been relatively smooth - compared to what came before. But we're entering a new political landscape, with unknown demographics. It's therefore of paramount importance to listen to each voice as it speaks.

Stopping primary season halfway through robs the later states of their right to be heard. Look at Florida and Michigan, moving their dates up to gain relevancy on a national scale, despite being prominent states to begin with. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina are pretty unimportant on a national scale, and to base the nomination of those four purported "bellwether" states is faulty logic. Is it very hard to understand why people are still coming out in droves now to vote, even though the media and many major Democrats (and Republics; there are protest votes lodged against McCain as well) are saying it's over? The other voices, oft-ignored, wish to be heard.

Looking at the drawn out contest, it's an argument for either a national primary day (or month, with a different quadrant voting each week), but all that is at the parties' discretion. Remember, this aspect of our nation's election process is still decided by the 21st century equivalent of Good Old Boys smoking cigars in the back room (trumped-up nerds with lattes in an office park), so until the Republicans and Democrats decide that the current system is broke, expect more tough fights in open years.

***

Though you may not have read it, feel free to peruse last week's Political Hoedown, "It's over! He won Guam!!", for a recap on Indiana, North Carolina, some more on McCain, the media and (of course) numbers.

***

Kentucky and Oregon vote next, followed by Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. Those first two will go Hillary/Obama, followed by Hillary and then two Obama wins. It's likely Hillary can discount the western wins by saying they're Republican through and through, not worth the effort and expenditure to make "blue," but Kentucky is a solid battleground and proving spot. Puerto Rico for her also backs up her claim of the Hispanic vote.

John McCain recently gave a talk on his first term. See the AP story here. Some of it even Democrats can't argue with. The rest...it'll surely provoke debate. When the Dems decide what they're doing, I'll counterpoint it more with their proposed first term.



-Hooper



Read on, faithful few!

Thursday, May 8, 2008

TPH: It's over! He won Guam!!


The Political Hoedown
May 6th's Primaries; the Media, Judging McCain, ...and the beat goes on...


By now you know how things hashed out Tuesday night in North Carolin and Indiana. Barack won NC by about 14% (56% to 42%) and Hillary eked out a victory in IN, 51% to 49%. It took until 12:15 in the freaking morning to find out the latter, due to stonewalling by Lake County Indiana officials, including the Obama-supporing mayor of Gary, Rudolph Clay. Mayor Thomas McDermontt, Jr. of Hammond, a Clinton supporter, got into a conference call argument with Clay Tuesday night on CNN, claiming accurately that the results were all on a computer. No one was going around by hand and counting the votes. Gary's mayor, flustered, just annoyed McDermott by hamfisting an answer about lost of absentee ballots and leprechauns and so forth.

***

The real winner last night was the media. They've been driving this competition since Iowa, building an underdog case for Obama until he topped Hillary after Super Tuesday. Noting that ratings would drop if the Democrats had a clear choice, they muddied the waters by insisting on the "national states" strategy of Clinton, casting her as the underdog and reinforcing that with each win.

What they've given us, the citizens, the voters, is a clear path to dischord. Democrats can't be happy that their primary election is so bitter, not even thinking about the fall. Come September and October, when McCain has the full might of the GOP campaign blitz behind him, will the Dems wither to nothing, as they burned themselves out too soon?

***

Not that Republicans have it easy. Somewhere around 23% of voters last night cast their ballots against McCain and for Paul, Romney and Huckabee. The Senator may've clinched the nomination, but he hasn't sealed the deal with his base. He came out this week saying he wouldn't appoint activist judges to the Supreme Court, hinting at more conservative choices that frankly scare Democrats. Not that Roberts or Alito, Bush's picks, have been bad; I think Justice Roberts will stand, after his - hopefully - decades-long career on the highest bench, as one of the best up there. That is the true legacy of President Bush, a young Chief Justice. (This armchair pundit's personal opinion is that we'll be better off with that some silly legislation overturned in the next Congress.)

Expect more of the same from McCain in the next month: a gentle hush. He knows if he makes waves - news - then the sharks on the DNC will latch on to every word and whittle him down without spending a dime. Best to leave the Dems to put their own house in order, agonizingly, then give them something to distact the media from the potential implosion in their party.

***

Did Barack Obama win the nomination last night? According to many headlines, articles and editorials today, he did. The victory was big enough in NC and the loss miniscule in Indiana (not to mention last week's Guam win). Neither state is especially crucial in the national scheme of things, and when you break down the demographics of the state and how they hashed out for each person, nothing was a surprise. The same blocks voted for the same candidates in roughly the same amounts. These elections showed nothing new.

What they highlighted was Obama's lead. Hillary just can't overcome it. While he isn't breaking into her base, she's having little luck with his. In fact, 11% of the total Indiana vote could've been Republicans masquerading as Dems. That would be the Rush Limbaugh initiative showing its hand. Were that the case, Hillary is dead in the water, for they would all prop her up to keep Obama - the more dangerous candidate in Rush's eyes - off the ticket. But back to Barack's lead, it is nearly insurmountable at this point. Proportionate voting in the primaries will ensure Hillary gets more delegates when she loses Oregon, Montana and South Dakota, keeping her "alive," yet Obama also gets to increase his totals when she undoubtedly wins in West Virginia next week, followed by Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

The phrase "double-edged sword" applies to every victory of hers, because at this entrenched phase they're not enough in themselves to yank her into the lead. Only the Superdelegates can do that...

Obama is already planning his campaign for the fall, a classic psych-out strategy. He's not locked in yet, either.

The staying power of each rival's constituencies is in the news, as exit polling shows a greater proportion of Hillary's supporters will jump ship and vote for McCain or not at all, vs. Obama's numbers.

FYI: she needs ~67% of the remaining delegates overall, which ain't happening. Former presidential (D) candidate George McGovern, orignally for Clinton, has restated his position, claiming Obama has won and Clinton should concede.

***

We're down to the last six contests for the Democrats: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. I already told you who I think will win, and that means we'll have more acrimony, more infighting and more media blitzing for the next month than the a primary season has had in most of our lifetimes.

Hello, democracy!


-Hooper

Read on, faithful few!